Life is a Game of Risk Management

All our lives are one prolonged risk management exercise. Most of us could live to 90 or more if we never took risks, ate anything delicious, went outside, or had fun. On the other hand, those who are bad at risk management are more likely to suffer painful or debilitating consequences or even premature demise. They might even earn a Darwin Award.

Risk management is a game of odds. Sometimes, the ball takes an unexpected bounce. People who are great at risk management may catch a bad roll of the dice. People who are very bad at risk management may experience a lucky streak.

Swinging - Pleasure and Risk

Like everything else in life, swinging requires us to balance risk with pleasure.

One tail of the bell curve sees swingers who wear condoms in every single extra-marital adventure. The other tail sees swingers who disregard protection almost entirely.

Most swingers fall somewhere in between. They are more likely to use protection with new encounters and people they don't know well. They are less likely to use protection with longer-term relationships with trustworthy partners.

We cannot eliminate all risk from swinging any more than we can from crossing the street. However, if you look both ways, watch traffic, and wait for the light, the odds are good you'll make it safely to your destination. If you close your eyes and randomly walk into the road, the odds will likely catch up with you eventually.

Condoms are Effective at Reducing Risk

Mountains of evidence show that condoms provide significant protection against getting flattened by a Big Mack Truck--HIV. The odds of contracting HIV via oral sex are minuscule.

Condoms also provide significant protection against many other STIs--syphilis, gonorrhea, trichomonas, and chlamydia. While these are awful, they are all treatable. However, it is worth noting that multi-resistant gonorrhea is on the rise, and public health is getting very nervous about an untreatable strain appearing in the not-too-distant future.

Condoms also reduce, but not eliminate, the risk of transmission of HSV (both I and II) and HPV. 

HPV

For 90% of women, HPV will clear up on its own within two years. However, the long-term consequences of HPV can be severe. HPV is associated with 99% of cervical and 70% of oropharynx cancers. Most men who have HPV have no symptoms. But they can still pass it on to their partners.

HSV

The herpes roster viruses are endemic to human populations. Everyone has heard of the Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV). Most know these come as HSV I (cold sores) and HSV II (genital sores). Less commonly known is that chickenpox and its elder brother, Shingles, are also part of the herpes roster clan. Epstein Barr (Mononucleosis) is another member of this clan.

Herpes goes dormant and lives in your nerve tissue. Often, after the initial symptoms, you may never see it again. If you are not symptomatic, you are unlikely to transmit it. It's not impossible, just improbable.

Between 50% - 80% of the U.S. population has HSV I. 12% of the U.S. population has HSV II. However, due to the popularity of oral sex, HSV I appears in the genital region, and HSV II appears in the oral region.

There is little difference between them. Both carry the extremely rare possibility of meningoencephalitis (brain infection), with HSV II being somewhat more likely than HSV I. But otherwise, they are pretty much the same thing. So, 3/4 of the population has some form of HSV and since they both appear now in both the oral and genital regions, distinguishing them from one another has little value.

90% of HSV II people do not know they have it. That's because most people's symptoms are extraordinarily mild or non-existent.

Doctors no longer routinely test for HSV I or HSV II. The medical establishment has concluded that the stigma of HSV far outweighs the actual harm it causes. The accuracy of our current testing and the rate of false positives has something to do with this.

Condoms can reduce the transmission of HSV but not eliminate it. That's because HSV can be transmitted skin to skin. Again, if someone is not having an outbreak, they are not likely to transmit it.

Categorizing Risk

Here's how we categorize STI dangers

1. HIV (uncurable)
2. Hepatitis B or C (uncurable)
3. HPV (uncurable--but there's a vaccine now)
4. Multi-resistance Gonorrhea (lurking around the corner)
5. Syphilis, Chlamydia, Trichomonas, Gonorrhea (curable)
6. Bacterial Vaginosis (pain in the ass -- but curable) 

HSV - Most people have some form of this. 90% of people don't know they have it because there are no symptoms. Doctors no longer test for it because they've decided the stigma is more harmful than the disease.

So, unless you have symptoms, which increase the likelihood of transmission, I recommend you stop worrying about this. Most people you play with have it but don't know it. Likely, you have it but don't know it either.